Egg prices in August 2026 were 23.0% lower than a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while prices for sugar and sweets rose 6.1%. The USDA now forecasts egg prices to fall about 29% for 2026 overall, so holiday bakers can expect cheaper eggs but pricier sugar and candy this season.
Good news for anyone planning a December baking marathon: eggs, the ingredient that made last year's holiday cookies so expensive, have come back down to earth. The catch is that sugar and sweets are moving the other way, so this year's cookie budget will look a little different.
What's trending
The latest Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released September 11 and covering August 2026, shows egg prices down 23.0% over the past 12 months. Over the same period, the index for sugar and sweets rose 6.1%, while overall grocery prices ("food at home") rose 2.2%. Dairy was roughly flat, down 0.3% over the year, and cereals and bakery products were up 2.6%.
The USDA's Economic Research Service, in its Food Price Outlook updated September 25, expects the trend to hold through the end of the year. It forecasts egg prices to fall 29.4% in 2026, while sugar and sweets are forecast to rise 6.6%.
Why it's resonating
Eggs were the headline of last year's grocery bills. According to the USDA, retail egg prices rose 21.9% in 2025 after an avian flu outbreak that began in 2022 reduced egg-laying flocks. This year, the USDA projects higher egg production, and it reported fewer new bird flu detections in early 2026 than a year earlier.
For holiday bakers, that's a meaningful shift. Most classic Christmas cookies, such as sugar cookies, gingerbread, spritz and snickerdoodles, call for eggs, so the staple that hurt most last year is now the bargain. Recipes heavy on chocolate chips, candy toppings or sprinkles may cost more, since they fall into the sugar and sweets category.
How to make the most of it this season
A few practical ways to stretch the baking budget:
- Lean into egg-based classics. Sugar cookies, gingerbread and spritz are back to being budget-friendly.
- Go easy on the candy toppings. With sugar and sweets up, a simple glaze or a sprinkle of sanding sugar can replace pricier candy add-ins.
- Bake one big batch instead of five small ones. Buying ingredients for one recipe in bulk is usually cheaper than stocking up for several.
That last idea is exactly why the cookie exchange is such a good fit for budget-minded bakers. Each guest bakes several dozen of a single recipe, then everyone goes home with a mixed box of everyone else's cookies. You get the variety of a dozen recipes for the cost of one. If you're thinking of hosting one, an editable Christmas cookie exchange invitation with the swap rules already written ("Bring 3 dozen cookies to swap + copies of your recipe") makes it easy to send invites by text this week.
The bottom line
Cheaper eggs make this a good year to bake the classics, while rising sugar prices are a nudge to keep the candy toppings simple. If you want variety without buying ingredients for a dozen recipes, a cookie swap is still the smartest way to fill the holiday cookie tin.