Mastercard's SpendingPulse forecast, released September 23, expects US holiday retail sales to grow 5.5% this season, the strongest in four years. The same week, retail CEOs told Fortune shoppers feel stretched, with 57% of Americans saying they're worse off than a year ago. The result is a season of spending on what matters and cutting everywhere else.
What's trending
The first big forecasts of the 2026 holiday season are in, and they point up. The Mastercard Economics Institute expects retail sales, excluding autos and gas, to rise 5.5% year over year between November 1 and December 24, which it calls the strongest growth in four years. It forecasts online sales up 11% and in-store sales up 3.6%.
AlixPartners is more cautious, predicting growth of 4% to 7%, according to Fortune. And the executives running the stores describe a nervous shopper. Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos described customers as "somewhat distressed, especially in sustained inflation." Macy's CEO Tony Spring said, "There is no straight line unless you can tell me there won't be an inflation increase."
Why it's resonating
Fortune called it a holiday paradox: shoppers say they should spend less, but they're still spending. They're just hunting harder for value. The article notes higher-income households trading down to discount retailers, while lower-income households are visiting stores more often but buying less per trip.
For families, that usually means protecting the traditions that matter most and trimming the rest. Christmas dinner at home is often the tradition people protect. It's cheaper per head than a restaurant and gets everyone around one table.
Where the savings show up for hosts
Hosting on a tighter budget tends to follow a familiar pattern:
- The meal stays, the extras shrink. Potluck sides, one showstopper dessert, and fewer disposable decorations.
- Invitations go digital. Texting an invitation to the family group chat costs nothing to send, and you can still print a few cards for grandparents.
- Planning gets tighter. A written budget and shopping list is the easiest way to avoid the Christmas Eve grocery run that blows the budget.
If you're going the text-it route this year, a phone-sized invitation still makes the night feel special. The Editable Christmas Dinner Invitation from PR Creative Digital is one example, a cozy watercolor family-table design you edit in Canva and send as an evite or print as a 5x7 card. It comes with a free party planner that includes budget and shopping list pages.
The bottom line
The 2026 forecasts say Americans will spend more this season, but carefully. Expect Christmas dinner at home to be the tradition that survives the budget cuts, with digital invitations, shared dishes and a simple plan doing the saving.